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        </div><article class="page single"><h1 class="single-title animated flipInX">电动化搅动一池春水</h1><h2 class="single-subtitle">我看特斯拉跃居市值第一</h2><div class="post-meta">
            <div class="post-meta-line"><span class="post-author"><a href="/" title="Author" rel=" author" class="author"><i class="fas fa-user-circle fa-fw"></i>辛载阳</a></span>&nbsp;<span class="post-category">收录于 <a href="/categories/%E6%9D%82%E8%B0%88/"><i class="far fa-folder fa-fw"></i>杂谈</a>&nbsp;<a href="/categories/%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6/"><i class="far fa-folder fa-fw"></i>汽车</a></span></div>
            <div class="post-meta-line"><i class="far fa-calendar-alt fa-fw"></i>&nbsp;<time datetime="2020-06-10">2020-06-10</time>&nbsp;<i class="fas fa-pencil-alt fa-fw"></i>&nbsp;约 1369 字&nbsp;
                <i class="far fa-clock fa-fw"></i>&nbsp;预计阅读 3 分钟&nbsp;</div>
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  <ul>
    <li><a href="#国内新能源战场狼烟四起">国内新能源战场，狼烟四起</a></li>
    <li><a href="#传统油车巨头的窘境">传统油车巨头的窘境</a></li>
    <li><a href="#特斯拉大众或者丰田">特斯拉？大众？或者丰田？</a></li>
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            </div><div class="content" id="content"><p>这是一个见证历史的时刻，汽车行业多年以来的的格局被“搅局者”特斯拉打破，特斯拉的市值以非常之快的速度攀升，最终超过了雄踞榜首多年的丰田，并且为现在排名第三的大众市值的两倍之多。</p>
<p><img
        class="lazyload"
        src="/svg/loading.min.svg"
        data-src="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c"
        data-srcset="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c 1.5x, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c 2x"
        data-sizes="auto"
        alt="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c"
        title="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB7d9bc73e33b6437582fcc139aaade71e?method=download&amp;shareKey=4b1645a9ddc3063b50c1f5aeac70043c" /></p>
<p>其实在汽车行业，丰田很长一段时间都是一个不可企及的存在。尽管在中国市场，排名第三的大众要更为风光，但是作为千万辆级的唯一车企，其市场地位不由分说。即使不久前我发了这样一条朋友圈，也是半带戏谑。没想到，仅仅四个月之后，特斯拉便一路高歌猛进登上市值第一的宝座——这背后，除了资本的追逐，也必然有其深层次的道理。</p>
<p><img
        class="lazyload"
        src="/svg/loading.min.svg"
        data-src="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090"
        data-srcset="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090 1.5x, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090 2x"
        data-sizes="auto"
        alt="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090"
        title="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBba38c27b33d6e5037f801ca4a5f6a6bd?method=download&amp;shareKey=fb250040aac56333d0f260d3e39e1090" /></p>
<h2 id="国内新能源战场狼烟四起">国内新能源战场，狼烟四起</h2>
<p>特斯拉刚刚公布了五月的全球销售数据，中国区11095辆，居然反超由于疫情影响的美国总部(仅仅只有8150辆)，这背后有上海临港工厂新进落成的好消息的鼓舞，却也给正在摩拳擦掌的诸多国内新能源厂商巨大的压力。似乎，当年引入的这条“鲇鱼”已然长成气候，而池里的其他玩家要么已经休克出局，要么也在池底匍匐挣扎。</p>
<p><img
        class="lazyload"
        src="/svg/loading.min.svg"
        data-src="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a"
        data-srcset="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a 1.5x, https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a 2x"
        data-sizes="auto"
        alt="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a"
        title="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEB68e9a2aff23d6dc25fa63529e2e1350a?method=download&amp;shareKey=29f61beb0b74b6fe49e55d0a15dd4c8a" /></p>
<p>祸不单行，更加令人忧虑的是，不仅仅在电动化领域，在智能驾驶领域，特斯拉依然是独步天下。记得有人讲过，自动驾驶的未来，不在于算法，不在于器件，而在于数据的规模和质量，我深以为然。特斯拉几天前发布了这样一个数据：从2014年9月至今，已经收集了超过160亿公里的真实行驶数据，一方面特斯拉以其相比而下巨大的车队规模，使得即使像博世这样的行业巨头面对特斯拉都显得乏力，另外一方面其出色的智能驾驶功能作为对于其电动车的加持，又能促进其汽车销量的进一步增长。</p>
<h2 id="传统油车巨头的窘境">传统油车巨头的窘境</h2>
<p>就在特斯拉市值超过丰田的同时，就在昨天，大众集团宣布 Herbert Diess 卸任大众品牌 CEO，相比丰田在电动车领域的姗姗来迟（可以参考<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NTM0MTAyMA==&amp;mid=2247487562&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27642880e89b0920ad34a5135e0fc62f&amp;chksm=e9515e79de26d76fdffa0931d1993d848e478f5d1d2b23cfd98ab72cbe85683389447bd9ee44&amp;mpshare=1&amp;srcid=&amp;sharer_sharetime=1591798695425&amp;sharer_shareid=e757ecbfdb6429bae799059ff6b8b1cc&amp;key=b5775b2470b4687f262c4f409c5513e03511841942a799de635702973ca0922d742f6b97058fdb710926a54ff498e3745094ecdda161876ad208120f17cec7dee2229fbe94bed499677aad884c5254b6&amp;ascene=1&amp;uin=MjUzMTU2MjMwNQ==&amp;devicetype=Windows%2010%20x64&amp;version=62090070&amp;lang=zh_CN&amp;exportkey=A5SWfWxT8Dj63Jbarnc87x4=&amp;pass_ticket=5FfBJ4sId6oB1cgC3jvKs1ybGFYOTjEgbUo/nSe81g0qlK2wjJOQhfIPvqXyAL5k&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreffer">关于丰田的电动化，你想知道什么？</a> ），大众集团在电动之战中无疑是那个转向意志最为坚决、投入资源最为庞大、成就最为斐然的那个领跑者。往往可以见诸媒体的是，大众会被拿来作为和特斯拉比对的对象，从而给出诸多看上去十分让人信服的特斯拉被高估的证据。</p>
<p>当仅仅产量为65万辆车的特斯拉市值跃居第一，而作为在传统汽车领域最能和 Elon Musk相较劲的主机厂领导者，似乎再也无力推动大众的激进变革。我记得Diess曾经讲过很多类似于“如果再不向电动化和智能化努力转型，那么大众就是下一个诺基亚”这样类似的话语，从这次临阵换帅可以看出，像大众这样一个有着深厚内燃机积淀的公司，转型确实比我们想象中的困难。</p>
<h2 id="特斯拉大众或者丰田">特斯拉？大众？或者丰田？</h2>
<p>从特斯拉最新发表的《特斯拉印象报告2019》中可以看出，特斯拉已经从最初简单的保证供应和产销平衡迈向了更为广袤的领域：</p>
<p><img
        class="lazyload"
        src="/svg/loading.min.svg"
        data-src="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBb89b63fb73c289b2523ae5119ef192e1?method=download&amp;shareKey=7ef9764dec661ec3d3c2de0bdeb2265f"
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        data-sizes="auto"
        alt="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBb89b63fb73c289b2523ae5119ef192e1?method=download&amp;shareKey=7ef9764dec661ec3d3c2de0bdeb2265f"
        title="https://note.youdao.com/yws/api/personal/file/WEBb89b63fb73c289b2523ae5119ef192e1?method=download&amp;shareKey=7ef9764dec661ec3d3c2de0bdeb2265f" /></p>
<p>相比之下，刚刚在华推出第一款纯电动车型的丰田，似乎就显得慢了半拍，不过，即使是提早出发的大众，现在的转型看上去也远没有完成。想起去年我曾有幸就这个问题向丰田中国总经理前川先生请教，他的观点我觉得代表了丰田一直以来的独特的企业文化，他说“我们其实一直在进行着电动汽车的技术储备，就像当年开发混动技术一样，不过我们希望构建一个各种驱动方式最有效共存的体系，希望以此来达成丰田的'2050环境挑战&rsquo;的目标”。仔细一想，无论是激进转型的大众，还是稳步推进的丰田，抑或是风光无限的特斯拉，带给我们的是一个全新的群雄逐鹿的时代，可以预见到带给消费者的会使技术的迅速迭代升级和更加富有变革的全新设计——从现在看，鹿死谁手还远未可知。</p>
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